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Free Microsoft 70-742 Dumps Exam Questions and Answers:
Which of the following is not true about simu-lation models that use Monte Carlo processes?
A. They are deterministic in nature.
B. They may involve sampling.
C. They mathematically estimate what actual performance would be.
D. They emulate stochastic systems.
70-742 exam Correct Answer: A
The Monte Carlo simulation is often used in computer modeling to generate the individual values for a random variable. The performance of a quantitative model under uncertainty may be investigated by randomly selecting values for each variable in the model (based on the probability distribution of each variable) and then calculating the value of the solution. Because Monte Carlo processes use the laws of probability to generate values for random variables, simulations using them are probabilistic, not deterministic.
The sales manager for a builder of custom yachts developed the following conditional table for annual production and sales: According to the table, how many yachts should be built?
Correct Answer: C
To achieve the maximum expected profit. 30 yachts should be built. For each level of production, multiply the probability of demand by the expected profit. The computation for the maximum is: 0.1 (- US $10) + 0.2($10) + 0.5($30) + 0.2($30) = US $22.
Only two companies manufacture Product A. The finished product is identical regardless of which company manufactures it. The cost to manufacture Product A is US$1, and the selling price is US $2. One company considers reducing the price to achieve 100% market share but fears the other company will respond by further reducing the price. Such a scenario would involve a:
A. No-win strategy.
B. Dual-win strategy.
C. One win-one lose strategy.
D. Neutral strategy.
70-742 dumps Correct Answer: A
If both firms reduce the selling price of Product A, neither will gain sales and the resultant price war will cause both firms to earn lower profits. This outcome is
inevitable when reduced profit margins do not result in a significant increase in sales. This is classified as a no-win strategy.
The decision rule that selects the strategy with the highest utility payoff if the worst state of nature occurs is the:
A. Minimize regret rule.
B. Maximize utility rule.
70-742 pdf Correct Answer: C
The maximin rule determines the minimum payoff for each decision and then chooses the decision with the maximum minimum payoff. It is a conservative criterion adopted by risk-averse players, that is, those for whom the disutility of a loss exceeds the utility of an equal gain.
Your company (Company Y) has decided to enter the European market with one of its products and is now considering three advertising strategies. This market currently belongs to Company X. Company X is aware that your company is entering the market and is itself considering steps to protect its market. An analyst for your company has identified three strategies Company X might develop and has shown the payoffs for each in the tables below. The analyst has formulated this problem as a:
A. Zero-sum game.
B. Cooperative game.
C. Prisoner’s dilemma.
D. Game against nature.
Correct Answer: A
Game theory is a mathematical approach to decision making when confronted with an enemy or competitor. Games are classified according to the number of players and the algebraic sum of the payoffs. In a two-player game, if the payoff is given by the loser to the winner, the algebraic sum is zero, and the game is a zero-sum game; if it is possible for both players to profit, the game is a positive- sum game. In this situation, the sum of the payoffs for each combination of strategies is zero. For example, if X takes no action and Y chooses limited advertising, X’s payoff is -1 and Ys is 1.
If the bank uses the maximax criterion for selecting the location of the branch, it will select:
70-742 vce Correct Answer: D
Risk-seeking, optimistic decision makers employ the maximax criterion. It is the strategy with the highest potential payoff, regardless of the state of nature. In this case, it is location L5 (US $29). ”
A bank plans to open a branch in one of five locations (labeled L1, L2, L3, L4, L5). Demand for bank services may be high, medium, or low at each of these locations Profits for each location-demand combination are presented in the payoff matrix. If the bank uses the minimax regret criterion for selecting the location of the branch. it will select:
Correct Answer: B
Under the minimax regret criterion, the decision maker selects the choice that minimizes the maximum regret (opportunity cost). The maximum regret for each location is determined from the opportunity loss matrix.
A bank plans to open a branch in one of five locations (labeled L1, L2, L3, L4, L5). Demand for bank services may be high, medium, or low at each of these locations. Profits for each location-demand combination are presented in the payoff matrix. If, in addition to the estimated profits .management of the bank assesses the probabilities of high, medium, and low demands to be 0.3.0.4, and 0.3, respectively, what is the expected opportunity loss from selecting location L4?
70-742 exam Correct Answer: A
First, the opportunity loss matrix must be prepared
During the past few years, Wilder Company has experienced the following average number of power outages: Each power outage results in out-of-pocket costs of US $800. For US $1,000 per month, Wilder can lease a generator to provide power during outages. If Wilder leases a generator in the coming year, the estimated savings (or additional expense) for the year will be
A. US $(15,200)
B. US $(1,267)
Correct Answer: C
Each outage costs US $800, but this expense can be avoided by paying US $1,000 per month (US $12,000 for the year). The expected-value approach uses the
probability distribution derived from past experience to determine the average expected outages per month.
3/12×0 = 0.0
2/12×1 = 0.16667
4/12×2 = 0.66667
The company can expect to have, on average. 1.58334 outages per month. At US $800 per outage, the expected cost is US $1,266.67. Thus, paying US $1.000 to avoid an expense of US $1,266.67 saves US $266.67 per month, or US $3,200 per year.
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